In many ways, investors are facing a similar harsh reality of change today, as they confront how different the world, markets, and policy priorities are in 2025 than they were in, say, 2017.
Thursday and Friday saw the beginnings of an unwind of the ultra-dominant U.S. large cap momentum trade (think of the momentum factor as the Newton’s First Law factor, “an object in motion stays in motion”, with momentum capturing the dynamic that if a stock has been performing well it will continue to perform well).
It’s never fun to write about disappointment on Valentine’s Day, but Pat Benatar would agree that this week’s inflation data was more “love taker” than “dream maker”.
It would be wonderful to live in the cozy world of only-happy Surprise Surprise, but the reality in 2025 is likely to be far more balanced between potential positive and negative surprises coming out of DC.
While Tech stocks came close to making a 10% correction last week, many of the sectors that lagged last year (yes, even international stocks) were among the leaders. With growth, led by personal consumption and a strong labor market, still solid heading into 2025, investors may be remembering the lead single from U2’s 1987 classic, The Joshua Tree, as they ask whether they can live “With or Without” the AI trade.
Overall, we do not see economic growth giving the Fed The Reason to cut rates in the near term, with the U.S. economy exhibiting much more resilience to short term interest rates this cycle. But given the wild cards of President Trump’s second term and the funding challenges of the Treasury, we expect to see continued jawboning around a desired path forward for Fed policy, even if growth remains resilient.
Fed rate cuts appear to be on hold. Global government bond markets are in retreat. And stocks have been jittery in the opening days of 2025. The trend for each of these hinges, to varying extents, on whether the U.S. job creating machine can continue humming in 2025. The December U.S. employment report gave us hope that it can.
The investing world has awoken from a two-week holiday slumber, and a new year has begun. 2025 starts, as most years do, with more questions than answers. But the outcome for the global economy and financial markets seems unusually uncertain to us. High valuations and market concentration combined with softening economic data and rising policy uncertainty mean the picture is murky, at best.
Currently, there is a splintering in financial markets and economic data that is likely to prove temporary, but as this splintering mends, markets could be singing Gin Blossoms’ “Follow You Down” along the way.
But oh, it's heavenNowadays “Nowadays”, Roxie Hart, Chicago the Musical It’s good, isn’t it? “Let me start by saying that we think the economy is in a really good place, and we think policy is in a really good place.” Grand, isn't it? “The economy is strong overall...