In this piece, we’ll assess the state of the race, discuss the U.S. federal debt and deficit in the context of different political power sharing arrangements, and evaluate the candidates’ economic platforms.
Powell’s kick off to the recalibration cutting cycle and the questions that it raises highlight the incredibly Strange characteristics of this cycle overall. To begin a cutting cycle with a supersized, emergency-like cut when equity markets are at all-time highs, financial conditions are broadly easy, and total employment is at a record is a backdrop so unique that it is consistent with our Strange Landing expectations.
Something is stirring. Shifting ground. It’s just begun. This month, investors seem to have finally cast aside their inflation worries as they focus more on risks to global growth. Commodities prices have plunged, bonds are rallying, and central banks are cutting interest rates.
In many ways, recent macro and market data resembles Pearl Jam’s cooling of energy, whether we are looking at labor data or equity market leadership and returns. Of course, the biggest question facing investors is if this slowing and cooling of data “does the evolution” into outright weakness for the economy and markets.
The unofficial end of summer is upon us, and save for a few fleeting days of volatility, it was a fruitful season for diversified investors. Even so, a few storm clouds have begun to descend, with unemployment rising and earnings revisions turning mildly negative.
Poor affordability is a large part of the story of poor home sales growth this year. But it’s not the whole story. No other segment of the U.S. economy has experienced a stranger landing than the U.S. housing market. So, let’s fly over the rainbow and explore what’s happening and how it informs our outlook.
Despite the pleas and pricing for swift action to resolve being behind the curve, it’s now more likely the Fed will move with “Slow Hands” as it begins to ease policy in September.
After a weak of equity and bond markets being whipsawed by positioning, economic narratives, and Fed expectations, it is helpful to take a step back, “cut through the noise” (as Bloomberg’s Tom Keene would say) and focus on the fundamentals.
Investors were reminded of a valuable lesson this week: falling interest rates can be good for risk assets but only up to a point and only for the right reasons.
U.S. politics has been delivering more twists and turns lately than even the most melodramatic arc on The West Wing. And yet, diversified investors have come through the chaotic headlines mostly intact.