The last few weeks of AI-infrastructure deal announcements have raised many an eyebrow about the circular nature of these deals (ex. Nvidia investing in $100B in OpenAI so that OpenAI can buy NVDA chips, alongside a $300B OpeanAI deal with Oracle that will purchase even more NVDA chips), and stirred up memories of the ill-fated vendor financing boom of the 1990’s tech bubble.
Here we are already, a blink away from the beginning of July, and the year has positively flown by.
Investors have certainly had to stomach bouts of high volatility caused by these “interesting” times, but for all the chop and churn, returns have actually been rather healthy. In fact, a straight 60/40 portfolio, made up of 60% Equities in the All-Country World Index (ACWI) and 40% Fixed Income in the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned a sturdy 7.2%!
Being in the space between should feel somewhat familiar to investors, as we experienced a space between back in 2022. Uncertainty and market volatility was pronounced that year, as investors debated how a rapid rise in Fed interest rates and the associated weakening in sentiment/soft data would weigh on real economic activity. Forecasters slashed estimates for U.S. GDP and S&P 500 EPS growth, broadly expecting a recession to be the end result of that space between, while equities experienced a bear market in anticipation of this weaker growth.
We came into 2025 expecting a pickup in market volatility. It has not taken long for those expectations to be met, and then some. As we feared it would, the combination of optimistic businesses and consumers with equity and credit markets priced for perfection proved to be combustible when policy uncertainty was added to the mix.
With uncertainty on the rise and market sentiment faltering, investors may be starting to second-guess their portfolio risk to avoid future haymakers that equity markets may throw. Portfolio strategies that provide investors with a degree of downside protection against equity loss and defined return outcomes can be a powerful tool to keep otherwise fearful investors aligned with (their financial) plan.
Listen in as the investment team discusses the source of recent market volatility, the potential duration and depth of the correction, and how investors can take advantage.
One of the many incisive lessons from Charles Dicken’s Great Expectations is how quickly a new environment can alter our perceptions and make us forget from where we came.
Just like young Pip who forgets his humble roots and comes to demand great things from his London high society life, only to be disappointed, today’s investors and forecasters have become accustomed to a high return, low volatility, upside-surprise-driven macro and market environment.
As equity market indices have delivered remarkably high and steady returns, investment strategies tied to those indexes can play a more important role in portfolios. So-called passive investing has become a $13 trillion powerhouse, transforming the financial landscape. But its rapid ascent has broader implications for market dynamics.
In true NewEdge fashion, our 2025 Outlook Preview is presented as a “songbook”, inspired by songs from a broad swath of genres. In addition to the link to the charts below, we have also shared a video where Chief Investment Officer Cameron Dawson walks through the deck.
In this webinar, hosted by Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer, and Brian Nick, Managing Director, Head of Portfolio Strategy, as well as Robin Petty, Managing Director, Head of Wealth Strategy at NewEdge Wealth, the team shares their perspectives about the historical relationship between election outcomes and financial markets. They covered the status of the race, the key issues at stake and the policy roadmap for 2025 and beyond, all with an eye toward the likely impact on the economy and markets.